This COAR report offers an overview of the current socio-political context of scholarly communications and highlights key forces that may shape the repository ecosystem over the next few years.
This figure illustrates the major evolving and potentially unstable forces identified in the report, which are expected to significantly affect scholarly communications, open science, and repositories over the next three years:
1. Digital sovereignty and shifting geopolitical dynamics
Geopolitics is increasingly reshaping global research systems.
- National interests now shape research collaboration.
- The U.S. research footprint may decline due to funding cuts.
- China continues to expand its research influence.
- European funding is shifting towards defence research.
- Countries seek greater control over data and digital infrastructures.
- A move towards national or regional research systems is likely.
2. Reductions in research funding
Research funding is declining or being redirected in several countries.
- Libraries face severe budget pressures.
- Some open science infrastructures may disappear.
- Institutions may abandon expensive publishers.
- Community-led, shared systems could grow.
3. Dissatisfaction with the current publishing system
The academic publishing model is increasingly criticised.
- Prestige-driven publishing still dominates.
- A small number of commercial publishers control much of the market.
- Efforts to move journals to open access via pay-to-publish models and transformative agreements had limited success, with many journals remaining hybrid while prices continue to rise.
- Article numbers keep rising, straining peer review.
- research quality may be declining.
- More countries favour repositories and open infrastructures.
4. Rise of Artificial Intelligence
AI is transforming scholarly communication.
- Used for editing, translation, and literature review.
- AI search may replace traditional databases.
- Users expect fast, personalised results.
- Risks include bias, misinformation, and poor transparency.
- Over-reliance on AI threatens research integrity.
5. Declining public trust in science and scholarship
Public confidence in science is weakening.
- Science is seen as politicised.
- Misinformation spreads quickly online.
- Fraud and fake papers damage trust.
- Governments call for better communication and transparency.
Read the full report:
Read more: Strategic Analysis of the Scholarly CommunicationsLandscape – COAR